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The world, including India, will experience an overall slowdown in the next year owing to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, tightening monetary conditions globally, the highest inflation in decades, and lingering effects of the pandemic, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
India is projected to grow at 6.8% in the current fiscal year, following 8.7% growth in the fiscal year that ended March 31 as per figures released in the IMF’s October 2022 World Economic Outlook: Countering the Cost-of-Living Crisis at the start of the World Bank IMF Annual Meetings here in Washington DC.
The growth rate for this year for India has been revised downward by 0.6 percentage points relative to the IMF’s June 2022 forecast following a weaker output in the second quarter, and subdued external demand, the IMF said. The forecast for the next fiscal year remains unaltered at 6.1%.
India has been doing fairly well in 2022 and is expected to continue growing fairly robustly in 2023,” the IMF’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said at a press briefing in Washington.
Inflation in India was above the RBI’s target, Mr. Gourinchas said, adding that the fiscal and monetary policy should be on “probably be on the tightening side”. The IMF has projected 6.9% consumer price inflation this year and 5.1% next year.
The IMF expects inflation in India to return to the inflation tolerance band... in the fiscal year 2023-24, “and additional monetary tightening is going to ensure that that happens”, IMF economist Daniel Leigh said at the briefing.
For the world as a whole, growth will slow down from 6.0% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023. This is reflective of a U.S. GDP contraction in the first half of 2022, a Euro Area contraction in the second half, extended COVID-19 outbreaks in China and associated lockdown and a property sector crisis.
The U.S. is expected to grow at 1.6% this year followed by a slowing down to 1.0% growth next year. The Euro Area at 3.1% this year and 0.5% next, while China is forecast to grow at 4.4% next year, followed by a projected 3.2 % this year.
The three largest economies, the United States, China, and the euro area will continue to stall. Overall, this year’s shocks will re-open economic wounds that were only partially healed post-pandemic. In short, the worst is yet to come and, for many people, 2023 will feel like a recession.
There remain high downside risks to the forecasts, as per the IMF. Monetary policy that seeks to restore price stability is the starting point to mitigating these risks, the report said.
Three lakh and counting: RTI pleas pile up at information commissions across India (Page no. 1)
(GS Paper 2, Polity and Governance)
A good 17 years after India got the Right to Information (RTI) Act, the transparency regime in the country remains a mirage with nearly 3.15 lakh complaints or appeals pending with 26 information commissions across India.
According to a report by the SatarkNagrikSangathan, the backlog of appeals or complaints is steadily increasing in commissions every year.
The number of appeals and complaints pending in 2019, from data obtained from 26 information commissions was 2,18,347. In 2020, the number climbed up to 2,33,384 with data obtained from 23 information commissions, in 2021 the number was 2,86,325 with data from 26 commissions and in 2022, it was 3,14,323.
The highest number of pending cases were in Maharashtra at 99,722 followed by Uttar Pradesh at 44,482, Karnataka at 30,358, the Central Information Commission at 26,724 and Bihar at 21,346.
The report says two out of 29 information commissions across the country are completely defunct, four of them headless at the moment and only 5% of the positions being occupied by women.
Three information commissions were found to be non-functional for varying lengths of time for the period under review as all posts of commissioners were vacant while two commissions were found to be completely defunct at the time of compilation of the report by the Sangathan.
Jharkhand and Tripura have been completely defunct for 29 months and 15 months respectively. Manipur, Telangana, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh are without chiefs.
Also, several information commissions, including the Central Information Commission, are working at reduced capacity with less than the stipulated number of members being in office.
Under the RTI law, information commissions are the final appellate authority and are mandated to safeguard and facilitate people’s fundamental right to information.
An analysis of penalties imposed shows that the commissions did not impose penalties in 95% of the cases where penalties were potentially imposable.
Proper functioning of information commissions is crucial for people to realise their right to information. The report shows that in several commissions a large backlog of cases has built up, resulting in a long waiting time for disposal, as governments have failed to make appointments of information commissioners in a timely manner.
The report also flags concerns regarding tardy disposal rates in several commissions and the lack of transparency in their functioning. There is an urgent need for the transparency watchdogs to function in a more effective and transparent manner.
According to a separate report by the Transparency International, one-fourth information commissioner posts are vacant and there are only 5% (only 8) women information commissioners in the country. Out of total 165 posts of information commissioners, 42 are vacant, including two chief State information commissioners.
Editorial
Solutions by the people, for the people (Page no. 6)
(GS Paper 3, Economy)
Economic science has dominated public policy since the 20th century. Debates have raged between “Keynesian” economists and “Friedman” economists: between “welfarists” who see the need for a government hand in the economy and “monetarists” who want governments out of the way to let private entrepreneurs loose and let an “invisible hand” produce good outcomes for all. Both sides agree that growth in GDP — the size of the economy measured in money terms — is essential.
Far-sighted systems thinkers in the Club of Rome gave a wake-up call in 1972. They showed that pursuit of GDP growth was destroying the earth’s capacity to renew itself and provide resources for unbridled economic growth.
They introduced the health of the planet into calculations of profit and growth. Meanwhile, economists continue to treat the natural environment as external to the economy.
By the millennium’s end, advocates of unbridled private enterprise had prevailed. Needs of citizens who earn their livelihoods by work, not investments of money, were relegated in national economic policies wherever the “Thatcher-Reagan-Chicago” model of neo-liberal economics prevailed.
The 2008 global financial crisis revealed the fragility of insufficiently regulated markets. Governments of the G7 (later G20) collaborated to stabilise the financial system.
They bailed out the “too large to fail” institutions while millions of common citizens, who lost homes and livelihoods, were barely compensated. In fact, some solutions to stabilise the global financial system, such as the austerity package imposed on Greece, harmed common citizens even further.
While the ideology of “minimum government”, with balanced budgets and low inflation has continued, waves of protest have erupted around the world.
Citizens complain that the global financial system is unfair. It protects the interests of large corporations and the wealthiest people while common citizens fall further behind.
Demands to include the needs of ‘People’ in economic policy are becoming louder. The “3P” slogan — People, Planet, and Profit — demands a paradigm shift in economics.
Blaming technology for deaths by suicide is misguided (Page no. 6)
(GS Paper 1, Social Issues)
Every year, when the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) releases statistics on deaths by suicide in India, the demand to address the issue grows louder.
The most recent data for 2021, released on August 30, 2022, shows that suicide claimed 1,64,033 lives during that year.
Two decades into the 21st century, deaths by suicide remain a major source of social distress and public policy concern in India.
Any loss of life is deeply unfortunate, but the notion of suicide is especially disturbing and beyond rationalisation for the affected family.
One of the causes of suicide, which has been prevalent in contemporary discussions, is the expanding role of digital technologies.
Aggravation of depression and other mental health issues leading to suicide is being repeatedly attributed to technology. Factors such as cyberbullying, loss of self-esteem due to social media, extreme binge-watching of online content or heavy reliance on virtual followers/communities for validation are all said to be contributing to the issue.
It is clear that the more technology gains influence over the human condition, the starker will be its role in the best and worst of human experience.
However, it will serve us well to realise that technology is neither at the core of the problem nor the perfect solution for it. Suicide is a reality which society must respond to in the most sensitive and holistic manner possible.
It is not the case that technology has no role to play in adverse mental health conditions or related cases of suicide; the issue is the sensational and misdirected analysis of the causes of suicides. This takes the focus away from a comprehensive understanding of the issue and a more appropriate solution to it.
For example, no one can deny the link between cyberbullying and suicidal thoughts and attempts. According to a study funded by the National Institutes of Health in the U.S., participants who experienced cyberbullying were more than four times as likely to report thoughts of suicide and attempts as those who did not.
However, similar results are true even for those who are bullied in person. The conclusion is that the medium of bullying is not the sole culprit; it is the act of bullying itself that needs to be addressed.
Awareness campaigns, sensitisation programmes, community support and counselling services are usually considered good solutions against bullying — cyber or otherwise.
News reports regarding a spate of suicides, specifically in Tamil Nadu, also illustrate this point. Preliminary news reports associated several suicide incidents with gaming addiction, particularly with online rummy games.
These reports elicited a heavy policy response from the Tamil Nadu government in the form of an ordinance, which banned most online games played for money, including rummy and poker.
Explainer
The AshokaVijaya Dashami controversy (Page no. 8)
(GS Paper 1, Art and Culture)
Mission Jai Bhim and The Buddhist Society of India organised a public meeting in Delhi to commemorate Buddhist Conversion Day.
Every year Dussehrais also celebrated as AshokaVijaya Dashami to commemorate Buddhist Conversion day. On October 14, 1956, B. R. Ambedkar along with more than half a million followers had embraced Buddhism in Nagpur, Maharashtra.
This year, a Minister in the AamAadmi government in Delhi, Rajendra Pal Gautam, participated in the event in his personal capacity. Along with the thousands of people assembled, he recited the 22 vows, which is part of the ritual.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) objected to Mr. Gautam’s presence at the event and his recitation of the vows. He was accused of spreading anti-Hindu sentiments.
The BJP sought the resignation of Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and following the uproar, Mr. Gautam resigned on October 9.
Modern history has admired Ambedkar as a revolutionary social reformer. His writings on social questions offer deep intellectual and critical inquiry about the problems of an exploitative Hindu caste order.
He wanted to end the inhuman practice of untouchability. His academic work is well-known for the scrutiny of Hindu philosophical texts.
Though several nationalist leaders, including Gandhi, disagreed with Ambedkar, they accepted him as a committed leader who wanted to liberate socially marginalised communities from the stranglehold of caste.
Ambedkar opted for Buddhism for its rational and progressive values that challenge some of the fundamental beliefs of Hinduism.
The 22 vows he delivered during the conversion ceremony initiated a radical escape for the convert from Hindu caste and cultural folds.
The vows are divided into three major sections. In the first part, it pledges to refuse to worship the Hindu pantheon or to follow Hindu religious dogmas (vows no. 1, 2, 3, 5 and 21 ).
Second, it challenges the authority of the Brahmin priest (vows no. 4, 6, 8 and 19). The rest promises to follow Buddhist principles.
News
A nation achieves glory when it takes pride in its heritage, says PM in Ujjain (Page no. 10)
(GS Paper 1, Art and Culture)
Prime Minister Narendra Modi dedicated the first phase of the ₹856-crore MahakalLok corridor in Madhya Pradesh’s Ujjain, after offering prayers at the ancient Mahakaleshwar temple.
Hailing his government’s efforts at renovating and reviving several Hindu temples across the country as well as improving access to Sikh pilgrimage sites, Mr. Modi said that in the AzadiKaAmritMahotsav (75th anniversary of Independence) period, India had given a “call for freedom from the mentality of slavery and taking pride in its heritage”.
The nation finds glory only when the flag of its success is flying on the world stage. To reach the pinnacle of that success, it is necessary that the nation attains cultural excellence and takes pride in its identity,” Mr. Modi said, mentioning projects such as the Kashi Vishwanath corridor, the Ram temple construction in Ayodhya and initiatives such as opening of the Kartarpur Sahib corridor.
Addressing a gathering at the KartikMela Ground, he said such efforts were helping India re-establish the pride associated with these centres of its “spiritual consciousness”, while calling the city of Ujjain “centre of India’s soul”.
Earlier, he unveiled a shivling to dedicate the Mahakal corridor to the nation. Mr. Modi praised Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan for the successful launch of the project. The first phase of the corridor cost ₹351 crore.
The corridor that is a little over 900 metres long traverses the old Rudrasagarlake, which has been revived as part of the redevelopment project around the Mahakaleshwar Temple, one of the 12 ‘jyotirlingas’.
The corridor is dotted with 108 ornate sandstone columns in a row with trishul design on top and mudras of Lord Shiva. It also has fountains surrounded by sculptures and murals on the deity
Non-traditional livelihoods skilling of girls included in BetiPadhao scheme (Page no. 10)
(GS Paper 2, Welfare Schemes)
Expanding the mandate of the ‘BetiBachaoBetiPadao’ scheme, the Central government announced the inclusion of skilling of girls in non-traditional livelihood (NTL) options in its flagship programme.
The scheme will now also focus on increasing the enrolment of girls in secondary education, particularly in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) subjects. Women have been historically under-represented areas such as technology.
Announcing the new inclusion in the scheme, Minister for Women and Child Development, SmritiIrani, emphasised the importance of convergence between various departments for providing quality education to empower girls. Government has always encouraged and empowered girls to pursue vocation of their choice irrespective of gender stereotypes.
A Memorandum of Understanding was signed between the Ministries of Women and Child Development, Skill Development and Entrepreneurship, and Minority Affairs.
It emphasises convergence between Ministries and Departments to ensure adolescents complete their education, build skills, and enter the workforce in a diverse range of professions, including in STEM fields.
Ms. Irani also interacted with a group of adolescent girls who overcame gender-based discrimination, child marriage, and financial hardships to carve a niche for themselves with non-traditional skills.
She said that her Ministry would also work towards counselling girls in choosing academic streams after school, and help girls in childcare institutions access skills to facilitate their financial independence and empowerment.
Through this initiative, girls will be given skill training in non-traditional vocations, thereby making them torchbearers of a women-led Aatmanirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India.
The BetiBachaoBetiPadhao scheme has been revised, and it has a new and refreshing look. Some of the new aims we have for the scheme include ensuring 1% increment in enrolment at the secondary level and skilling of girls and women every year, raising awareness about safe menstrual hygiene, and promulgating elimination of child marriages. These are the new elements being included in the scheme.
Technology is a tool for inclusion not exclusion, says Modi at UN Congress (Page no. 12)
(GS Paper 2/3, Agreements Affecting India’s Interests/Science and Technology)
In India, technology is a tool for inclusion and not exclusion, said Prime Minister, Narendra Modi at the inaugural of the second United Nations World Geospatial Information Congress (UNWGIC), in Hyderabad on October 11, 2022.
Geospatial technology has been driving inclusion and progress. Take our SWAMITVA (Survey of Villages and Mapping with Improvised Technology in Village Areas) scheme, we are using drone to map properties in villages.
For the first time in decades, people in rural areas have clear evidence of ownership,” he said speaking to delegates from several countries.
India’s steps at building infrastructure was on the backbone of geospatial technology. The South Asia satellite, said Mr Modi, was facilitating connection and communication in India’s neighbourhood.
India was celebrating 75 years of freedom from colonial rule and also the freedom to innovate. India’s geospatial sector had been opened up for its young bright minds.
Data collected over 200 years had been made open and accessible to all. India gave a major boost to its drone sector as well opened its space sector to private entities and 5G technology, too, was taking off as well, he added.
The principle of no one should be left behind applies across. The covid-19 pandemic should have been a wake up call to everyone in the world in taking everyone along.
Millions in the developing world needed diagnostics, medicines and vaccine yet, they were left to their own fate. There is a need for an institutional approach to help each other during a crisis. Global organisations such as the United Nations can lead the way in taking resources to the last person,” Mr Modi remarked.
Ahead of the Congress, Union Science Minister, Jitendra Singh, said that India’s geospatial economy is expected to cross ₹63,100 crore by 2025 at a growth rate of 12.8%.
He said, geospatial technology has become one of the key enablers in socio-economic development by enhancing productivity, ensuring sustainable infrastructure planning, effective administration, and aiding the farm sector.
The conference will be attended by over 2000 delegates including at least 700 international delegates and participants from about 120 countries
World
G7 vows support for Ukraine after Russian forces launch mass strikes (Page no. 13)
(GS Paper 2, International Groupings)
Ukrainian President VolodymyrZelensky appealed to leaders of the Group of Seven nations on Tuesday for more air defence capabilities and the G7 vowed to support Kyiv for “as long as it takes” while warning Russia against any use of nuclear weapons.
The G7 — which groups the United States, Germany, France, Japan, Britain, Italy and Canada — pledged continued “financial, humanitarian, military, diplomatic and legal support... for as long as it takes” to Ukraine, it said in a statement.
NATO said it was closely monitoring Russia’s nuclear forces following a string of Russian battlefield defeats in Ukraine and that the allies were also boosting security around key infrastructure after recent attacks on Baltic Sea gas pipelines.
Russian missiles again hit Ukrainian cities but with less intensity than on Monday, when dozens of strikes killed 19 persons, wounded more than 100 and knocked out power supplies across the country.
More missile strikes killed at least one person in the southeastern Ukrainian town of Zaporizhzhia and left part of the western city of Lviv without power.
“When Ukraine receives a sufficient quantity of modern and effective air defence systems, the key element of Russia’s terror, rocket strikes, will cease to work,” Mr. Zelensky told G7 leaders at a virtual meeting where he again ruled out peace talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Belarus, Moscow’s closest ally, said it had begun an exercise to assess its “combat readiness” after ordering troops on Monday to deploy with Russian forces near its border with Ukraine.
Belarus allowed Russia to use its territory to invade Ukraine but has not sent its own troops across the border.
Mr. Zelensky denied Minsk’s claim that Ukraine planned to attack Belarus but told the G7 he wanted to make sure there was no threat from its northern neighbour, and he called for a mission of international observers to monitor the border area.
Business
RBI consolidates norms on unhedged forex exposure (Page no. 14)
(GS Paper 3, Economy)
The Reserve Bank on Tuesday modified and consolidated guidelines for banks on unhedged foreign currency exposures of any entity to prevent losses due to heightened volatility in the forex market.
The RBI has, from time to time, issued several guidelines, instructions and directives to the banks on Unhedged Foreign Currency Exposure (UFCE) of the entities, which have borrowed from banks.
In the wake of a bank seeking clarification on various aspects related to UFCE, the RBI said a comprehensive review of the extant guidelines has been undertaken and all the existing instructions on the subject have been consolidated.
These instructions shall come into force from January 1, 2023, it said in a circular.In an explanatory note, the RBI said unhedged foreign currency exposure of any entity is an area of concern not only for the individual entity but also for the entire financial system.
Entities which do not hedge their foreign currency exposure can incur significant losses during a period of heightened volatility in foreign exchange rates.
These losses may reduce their capacity to service the loans taken from the banking system and increase their probability of default thereby affecting the health of the banking system.